The Probability of Home Prices Going Down

Dated: November 15 2019

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With the current uncertainty about the economy triggered by a potential trade war, some people are waiting to purchase their first home or move-up to their dream house because they think or hope home prices will drop over the next few years. However, the experts disagree with this perspective.

Here is a table showing the predicted levels of appreciation from six major housing sources:

As we can see, every source believes home prices will continue to appreciate (albeit at lower levels than we have seen over the last several years). But, not one source is calling for residential real estate values to depreciate.

Additionally, ARCH Mortgage Insurance Company in their current Housing and Mortgage Market Review revealed their latest ARCH Risk Index, which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. There was not one state that even had a moderate probability of home prices lowering. In fact, 34 of the 50 states had a minimal probability.

Those waiting for prices to fall before purchasing a home should realize that the probability of that happening anytime soon is very low. With mortgage rates already at near historic lows, now may be the time to act. You can contact me for a consultation.

Credits & colaborations:

Kcm. “What Is the Probability That Home Values Sink?” Keeping Current Matters, The KCM Crew, 10 Sept. 2019, https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2019/09/12/what-is-the-probability-that-home-values-sink/.

https://mi.archcapgroup.com/Portals/1/Documents/hammr/HaMMR_Summer2019.pdf

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Jesus Trujillo

When passion for real estate is combined with talent and uncompromising drive to succeed amazing things will happen! I am a Troy, MI based real estate agent since 2017 and with 15 years of buying and....

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